A one-point increase in the Damage Index for Antiphospholipid Syndrome (DIAPS) predicts mortality in thrombotic...

To determine whether early damage and its kinetics measured by the Damage Index for Antiphospholipid Syndrome (DIAPS) predicts mortality.

We carried out a single-centre retrospective analysis of thrombotic APS patients (2006 Sydney criteria), using the DIAPS for damage assessment. Early damage was considered to be at six months after disease onset; early damage increase (delta-DIAPS) was deemed to be at least a one-point rise in DIAPS within the first five years of illness. Groups were compared using appropriate statistical tests. Survival was analysed by the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression analysis was performed to investigate predictors of mortality.

A total of 197 patients (71.1% female; 65.9% primary APS; 72.4% Caucasian) were followed for up to 43 years (median 10). Damage developed in 143 (73.6%) patients. Twenty-three patients (12%) died. Secondary APS (HR 3.07, 95%CI 1.32-7.12, p=0.009), male sex (HR 3.14, 95%CI 1.35-7.33, p=0.008) and age at APS onset ≥40 years (HR 5.34, 95%CI 1.96-14.53, p=0.001) were risk factors for death. Early damage (n=69, 35.0%) was not associated with death (p=0.231). Having a first arterial event was associated with early damage (p<0.001), but not with delta-DIAPS (p=0.539) nor with the risk of death (p=0.151). Delta-DIAPS (n=53/181, 29.3%) predicted mortality (HR 5.40, 95%CI 2.33-12.52, p<0.001), even after adjusting individually for APS category (secondary), sex (male), early damage and age at APS onset (≥40 years) (all p<0.005).

Evolving damage in the first five years of illness, but not early damage, predicted mortality regardless of the nature of the first thrombotic event, sex, APS category and age.