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Quantifying political influence on COVID-19 fatality in Brazil
Leandro de Almeida1, Pedro V Carelli1, Nara Gualberto Cavalcanti2
1Departamento de Física, Univ. Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil.
Plos One
|July 12, 2022
Summary
Political factors significantly worsened the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. A new method estimates that political influence caused 350,000 deaths, representing over 57% of the total fatalities by the end of 2021.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Political Science
- Public Health
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic's severity in Brazil was exacerbated by government politicization.
- Quantifying the impact of political forces on epidemic fatality is challenging.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a method for measuring the effect of political factors on COVID-19 fatality in Brazil.
- To correlate political support with COVID-19 death rates across Brazilian states.
Main Methods:
- Utilized voting rates from the last general election as a proxy for political support.
- Correlated political support distribution with COVID-19 fatality rates over time.
- Analyzed the evolving correlation alongside government misinformation campaigns.
Main Results:
- A growing correlation was observed between COVID-19 fatality rates and political support.
- Political factors became dominant in explaining pandemic impact in Brazil by 2021.
- Estimated 350±70 thousand COVID-19 deaths attributed to political influence by end of 2021.
Conclusions:
- Political influence significantly contributed to COVID-19 mortality in Brazil, accounting for over 57% of deaths.
- The study demonstrates a quantifiable link between political dynamics and public health crises.
- Findings highlight the detrimental impact of politicization and misinformation on pandemic outcomes.
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