COVID-19-induced excess mortality in Italy during the Omicron wave

The existing literature estimates a significantly reduced odds of hospitalisation and death among individuals. However, though less severe than other variants, the Omicron variant may still lead to excess mortality compared to pre-pandemic years.

A generalized linear mixed model is introduced to model weekly mortality from 2011 to 2019, taking into account seasonal patterns and year-specific trends. Based on the 2019 year-specific conditional best linear unbiased predictions, excess of mortality is estimated.

In Italy, 14 and 11 regions suffered from relevant excess mortality in January and February, respectively. However, the situation is far from being as critical as during previous waves.

We can conclude that no matter which variant (or multiple inter-variant recombination) we are facing, excess mortality will appear in correspondence of any incidence peak.