CHA2DS2-VASc score as an independent outcome predictor in patients hospitalized with acute ischemic stroke

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a significant independent risk factor for 1-year mortality in patients with first acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The CHA2DS2-VASc score was initially developed to assess the risk of stroke in patients with AF. Recently, this scoring system has been demonstrated to have clinical value for predicting long-term clinical outcomes in AIS but the evidence is insufficient. This large-scale prospective cohort study investigated the independent predictive value of the score in such patients.

We included patients with AIS from the Taiwan Stroke Registry (TSR) during 2006-2016 as the present study population. Patients were divided into those with high (≥2) and low (<2) CHA2DS2-VASc scores. We further analyzed and classified patients according to the presence of AF. The clinical endpoint was major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) at 1 year after the index AIS.

A total of 62,227 patients with AIS were enrolled. The median age was 70.3 years, and 59% of the patients were women. After confounding factors were controlled, patients with high CHA2DS2-VASc scores had significantly higher incidence of 1-year MACCEs (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52, 1.76), re-stroke (adjusted HR = 1.28; 95% CI = 1.16, 1.42), and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.83, 2.24) than those with low CHA2DS2-VASc scores did. In the comparison between AF and non-AF groups, the AF group had increased MACCEs (adjusted HR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.60, 1.89), myocardial infarction (adjusted HR = 4.86; 95% CI = 2.07, 11.4), re-stroke (adjusted HR = 1.47; 95% CI = 1.26, 1.71), and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.72, 2.10). The Kaplan-Meier curve revealed that both CHA2DS2-VASc scores and AF were independent risk predictors for 1-year MACCEs and mortality.

The CHA2DS2-VASc score and AF appeared to consistently predict 1-year MACCEs of AIS patients and provide more accurate risk stratification. Therefore, increased use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score may help improve the holistic clinical assessment of AIS patients with or without AF.