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Markov Cohort State-Transition Model: A Multinomial Distribution Representation
Rowan Iskandar1,2,3, Cassandra Berns1,2
1Center of Excellence in Decision-Analytic Modeling and Health Economics Research, sitem-insel, Bern, Switzerland.
Highlights:
A Markov model simulates the average experience of a cohort of patients.Monte Carlo simulation, the standard approach for estimating the variance, is computationally expensive.A multinomial distribution provides an exact representation of a Markov model.Using the known formulas of a multinomial distribution, the mean and variance of a Markov model can be readily calculated.
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