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Does population aging reduce environmental pressures from urbanization in 156 countries?
Qiang Wang1, Xiaowei Wang2, Rongrong Li1
1School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, People's Republic of China; School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang University, Wulumuqi, Xinjiang 830046, People's Republic of China; Institute for Energy Economics and Policy, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, People's Republic of China.
The Science of the Total Environment
|July 16, 2022
Summary
Population aging can mitigate the environmental impact of urbanization, with its effects varying across global income groups. This research explores the complex relationship between urbanization, aging populations, and environmental sustainability.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Sociology
- Economics
Background:
- Urbanization and population aging are significant global trends impacting human societies and the environment.
- Existing research often overlooks the nonlinear interactions between urbanization, population aging, and environmental sustainability.
- Understanding these complex relationships is crucial for developing effective environmental policies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the nonlinear effect of population aging on the relationship between urbanization and environmental outcomes (carbon emissions and ecological footprint).
- To analyze these dynamics across 156 countries, categorized into different income groups.
- To identify policy implications for improving environmental quality through the lens of population aging.
Main Methods:
- Utilized panel threshold regression models to analyze urbanization-environment nexus.
- Set urbanization as the explanatory variable, carbon emissions and ecological footprint as explained variables.
- Incorporated population aging as a threshold variable, with analyses conducted globally and for four income groups.
Main Results:
- Confirmed a threshold effect of population aging on the urbanization-environment relationship globally and across income groups.
- Globally, urbanization increases carbon emissions and ecological footprint, but aging moderates this effect.
- Aging generally reduces environmental pressures, with positive impacts on environmental quality observed in high and upper-middle-income countries, while lower-middle and low-income countries show a slight increase in environmental pressure coefficients.
Conclusions:
- Population aging plays a significant role in mediating the environmental consequences of urbanization.
- The impact of aging on environmental quality is heterogeneous across different economic development levels.
- Targeted strategies considering population aging dynamics are essential for sustainable urban development and environmental management.
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