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Forecasting Staffing Needs for Ontario's Long-Term Care Sector.
Adrian Rohit Dass1, Raisa Deber2, Audrey Laporte2
1Research Coordinator, Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Canadian Centre for Health Economics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON.
Healthcare Policy = Politiques De Sante
|July 18, 2022
Summary
Ontario
Area of Science:
- Health Human Resources
- Healthcare Policy
- Geriatric Care Workforce Planning
Background:
- The long-term care (LTC) sector in Ontario faces increasing demand for care.
- Accurate workforce projections are crucial for sustainable healthcare delivery.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and present a forecasting model for key healthcare professionals in Ontario's LTC sector.
- To project the future supply and demand for personal support workers (PSWs), registered nurses (RNs), and registered practical nurses (RPNs).
Main Methods:
- Development of a forecasting model specific to PSWs, RNs, and RPNs.
- Analysis of projected workforce needs against expected supply in the LTC sector.
Main Results:
- A projected shortfall in the supply of full-time equivalent (FTE) workers by 2035 under the base-case scenario.
- Estimated deficits: 11,632 FTE PSWs, 6,031 FTE RNs, and 10,178 FTE RPNs needed by 2035.
Conclusions:
- Significant workforce increases are required in Ontario's LTC sector to meet future care demands.
- Findings have critical implications for health human resources policy and planning.
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