Testing for genetic assimilation with phylogenetic comparative analysis: Conceptual, methodological, and statistical...

Genetic assimilation is a process that leads to reduced phenotypic plasticity during adaptation to novel conditions, a potentially important phenomenon under global environmental change. Null expectations when testing for genetic assimilation, however, are not always clear. For instance, the statistical artifact of regression to the mean could bias us toward detecting genetic assimilation when it has not occurred. Likewise, the specific mechanism underlying plasticity expression may affect null expectations under neutral evolution. We used macroevolutionary numerical simulations to examine both of these important issues and their interaction, varying whether plasticity evolves, the evolutionary mechanism, trait measurement error, and experimental design. We also modified an existing reaction norm correction method to account for phylogenetic nonindependence. We found (1) regression to the mean is pervasive and can generate spurious support for genetic assimilation; (2) experimental design and post hoc correction can minimize this spurious effect; and (3) neutral evolution can produce patterns consistent with genetic assimilation without constraint or selection, depending on the mechanism of plasticity expression. Additionally, we reanalyzed published macroevolutionary data supporting genetic assimilation, and found that support was reduced after proper correction. Considerable caution is thus required whenever investigating genetic assimilation and reaction norm evolution at macroevolutionary scales.