The effects of cash transfer programmes on HIV-related outcomes in 42 countries from 1996 to 2019

Many countries have introduced cash transfer programmes as part of their poverty reduction and social protection strategies. These programmes have the potential to overcome drivers of HIV risk behaviours and usage of HIV services, but their overall effects on HIV-related outcomes remain unknown. Here we evaluate the effects of cash transfer programmes covering >5% of the impoverished population on country- and individual-level HIV-related outcomes in 42 countries with generalized epidemics. Cash transfer programmes were associated with a lower probability of sexually transmitted infections among females (odds ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.50-0.91; P = 0.01), a higher probability of recent HIV testing among females (odds ratio, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.15-5.88; P = 0.02) and among males (odds ratio, 3.19; 95% CI, 2.45-4.15; P < 0.001), a reduction in new HIV infections (incidence rate ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89-0.99; P = 0.03) and delayed improvements in antiretroviral coverage (3%; 95% CI, 0.3-5.7 at year 2; P = 0.03) and AIDS-related deaths (incidence rate ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.83-0.99 at year 2; P = 0.03). Anti-poverty programmes can play a greater role in achieving global targets for HIV prevention and treatment.