Modeling global 80-80-80 blood pressure targets and cardiovascular outcomes

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Cardiovascular Medicine

Background:

• Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading global cause of mortality, posing significant challenges to healthcare systems worldwide.
• Effective population-level blood pressure management is crucial for mitigating CVD burden.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the impact of achieving an 80-80-80 blood pressure control target on population health outcomes.
• To model the potential reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality and incidence under realistic implementation scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Development of a population cardiovascular disease model utilizing country-level data.
• Inclusion of data on CVD rates, blood pressure levels, and hypertension intervention coverage.
• Simulation of the 80-80-80 target: 80% screened/aware, 80% treated, 80% at target blood pressure.

Main Results:

• Most countries can achieve the 80-80-80 targets by 2040 under realistic conditions.
• Projected reduction in all-cause mortality by 4-7% (76-130 million deaths averted 2022-2050).
• Anticipated slowdown in CVD rise, averting 110-200 million cases due to population growth and aging.

Conclusions:

• The 80-80-80 hypertension control strategy offers substantial public health benefits globally.
• Middle-income countries are projected to see the largest number of averted CVD cases and deaths.
• Low-income countries are expected to experience the most significant relative reductions in disease rates.