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Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya.

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Climate change, specifically prolonged drought, significantly increased civil conflict in the premodern Maya capital of Mayapan. Despite this strife, regional adaptations allowed Maya society to endure until European contact.

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Area of Science:

  • Paleoclimatology
  • Archaeology
  • Premodern History

Background:

  • Debate exists on climate change's impact on premodern societal instability.
  • Limited case studies hinder understanding of climate-conflict dynamics.
  • Mayapan was a major Postclassic Maya capital in the Yucatán Peninsula.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the relationship between climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse.
  • To investigate these dynamics at Mayapan using a transdisciplinary approach.
  • To understand Maya societal resilience in the face of environmental stress.

Main Methods:

  • Combined archaeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets.
  • Utilized generalized linear modeling to correlate strife with drought.
  • Analyzed data from the 13th and 14th centuries CE.

Main Results:

  • Civil conflict at Mayapan increased significantly.
  • Strife correlated with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 CE.
  • Drought exacerbated factional tensions.

Conclusions:

  • Prolonged drought was a key factor in escalating civil conflict at Mayapan.
  • Regional adaptations demonstrated Maya societal resilience.
  • Maya political and economic structures persisted until European contact.