Political violence, risk aversion, and population health: Evidence from the US Capitol riot

This study is the first to explore the impact of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot on risk avoidance behavior and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized smartphone data from SafeGraph, Inc., and an event-study approach, we document a substantial increase on January 6 in non-resident smartphone pings at the sites of the protest: the Ellipse, the National Mall, and the US Capitol Building. Then, using data from the same source and a synthetic control approach, we find that the Capitol riot led to an increase in stay-at-home behavior among District of Columbia residents, consistent with risk avoidance behavior and post-riot policies designed to limit large in-person gatherings. Finally, while we find no evidence that the Capitol riot substantially increased the spread of COVID-19 in the District of Columbia, we do find that counties with the highest inflows of out-of-town protesters experienced a 0.004 to 0.010 increase in the rate of daily cumulative COVID-19 case growth during the month following the event. These findings are exacerbated in counties without COVID-19 mitigation policies in place.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-022-00914-0.