Coupled Dynamic Material Flow, Multimedia Environmental Model, and Ecological Risk Analysis for Chemical Management:...

Di(2-ethylhexhyl) phthalate (DEHP) is a widely used plasticizer that has adverse effects on ecosystems and human health. However, data about its stocks, flows, emission rates, as well as ecological risks are generally unknown in China, one of the world's largest producers of chemicals including DEHP, limiting sound management of chemicals. Herein, dynamic material flow analysis, coupled with a multimedia environmental model and ecological risk analysis, was performed to fill the data gap about DEHP in China mainland from 1956 to 2020. Results indicate that the in-use stocks of DEHP increased from 6.54 × 10⁶ kg in 1956 to 8.40 × 10⁹ kg in 2020. With growth in the emission rates, DEHP concentrations in air, soil, water, and sediment kept increasing from 1956 to 2010, which declined after 2010 and regrew after 2015. Sediment was a main sink of DEHP with the highest ecological risk quotient of >10 after 1999, necessitating measures for controlling the risk, for example, technology innovation to reduce DEHP emission rates, and substitution of DEHP with low-toxic alternatives. The coupled models that connect socio-economic data with ecological risk output may provide a systematic methodology for verification of the data necessary for risk control of chemicals.