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Wolf attacks predict far-right voting.

Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg1, Anselm Hager2

  • 1Amsterdam School of Communication Research, University of Amsterdam, 1012 WX Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|July 20, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The return of wolves (Canis lupus) in Germany is linked to increased far-right voting. Wolf attacks on livestock appear to fuel negative sentiment towards conservation and boost support for right-wing parties.

Keywords:
Canis lupusenvironmental conservationhuman–wildlife relationspolitical behaviorradical-right voting

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Political Science
  • Environmental Studies

Background:

  • Large carnivore populations, specifically wolves (Canis lupus), have rebounded in Central Europe due to conservation efforts.
  • The resurgence of wolves presents challenges for local communities, particularly farmers, who perceive them as threats to their economic livelihoods.
  • Populist political movements may leverage negative public sentiment towards wolves to gain electoral support.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of large carnivore return, specifically wolf attacks on livestock, on voting behavior.
  • To determine if wolf reemergence correlates with shifts in political affiliation, particularly towards far-right parties.
  • To explore the underlying mechanisms connecting wolf presence, public perception, and political outcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized fine-grained spatial data on wolf attacks across German municipalities.
  • Employed difference-in-differences models to analyze the relationship between wolf attacks and voting patterns.
  • Analyzed local survey data, social media content (Twitter, Facebook), and election manifestos to understand public sentiment and political framing.

Main Results:

  • A significant increase in far-right voting behavior was observed in areas experiencing wolf attacks.
  • The Green party experienced electoral losses in regions affected by wolf presence.
  • Survey data indicated a correlation between wolf attacks and negative attitudes towards environmental protection.

Conclusions:

  • The return of wolves and associated livestock predation can influence voting behavior, contributing to a rise in far-right political support.
  • Far-right political actors strategically frame the wolf as an economic threat to mobilize voters.
  • Negative public sentiment towards wildlife conservation, exacerbated by carnivore conflicts, has tangible electoral consequences.