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Area of Science:

  • Oceanography
  • Climate Science
  • Sea Level Dynamics

Background:

  • Sea-level variations along the U.S. East Coast are influenced by complex oceanic and atmospheric processes.
  • Quantifying the precise contributions of local and remote forcing mechanisms remains a challenge, limiting predictability.
  • Previous hypotheses regarding Labrador Sea wind stress impacts on regional sea levels require further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine the causal relationships between wind stress, air-sea buoyancy forcing, and interannual sea-level variations at Nantucket.
  • To differentiate the impacts of local versus remote forcing on dynamic sea level along the U.S. East Coast.
  • To refine understanding of sea-level predictability by quantifying key drivers.

Main Methods:

  • Adjoint sensitivity analysis applied to an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean state estimate.
  • Causality established for interannual variations in Nantucket dynamic sea level.
  • Forward perturbation experiments to investigate remote forcing mechanisms and response times.

Main Results:

  • Wind forcing accounts for 67% of interannual sea-level variance at Nantucket, primarily from near-local sources.
  • Combined wind and buoyancy forcing explain 97% of the variance.
  • Remote subpolar North Atlantic buoyancy forcing significantly influences Nantucket sea level with a multi-year lag, primarily via advection, though coastally trapped waves can induce rapid responses.

Conclusions:

  • Local wind stress is a dominant driver of Nantucket sea-level variability.
  • Remote buoyancy forcing from the subpolar North Atlantic is a crucial, albeit delayed, contributor to U.S. East Coast sea-level changes.
  • The study refutes the significant role of Labrador Sea wind stress and highlights the complex interplay of forcing mechanisms for improved sea-level prediction.