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Implications of Coastal Conditions and Sea-Level Rise on Mangrove Vulnerability: A Bio-Morphodynamic Modeling Study
Danghan Xie1, Christian Schwarz2,3, Maarten G Kleinhans1
1Faculty of Geosciences Utrecht University Utrecht Netherlands.
Mangrove ecosystems face risks from sea-level rise (SLR), with micro-tidal conditions increasing vulnerability. Coastal factors like waves and sediment supply significantly influence mangrove resilience and landward habitat development under SLR.
Area of Science:
- Coastal geomorphology
- Ecosystem dynamics
- Climate change adaptation
Background:
- Mangrove forests are vital coastal ecosystems reliant on bio-morphodynamic feedbacks for persistence on intertidal flats.
- The influence of diverse coastal conditions on mangrove responses to sea-level rise (SLR) remains inadequately understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of tidal range, wind waves, sediment supply, and coastal slope on mangrove development under SLR using numerical experiments.
- To assess how these coastal factors mediate mangrove vulnerability and landward habitat formation.
Main Methods:
- Numerical modeling of mangrove bio-morphodynamics under varying coastal conditions and SLR scenarios.
- Systematic exploration of parameters including tidal range (micro- to macro-tidal), wind wave presence, sediment supply rates, and coastal slopes.
Main Results:
- Micro-tidal conditions render mangroves more vulnerable due to gentler slopes and limited sediment capture, causing significant landward displacement.
- Macro-tidal conditions with high sediment supply enhance accretion and platform formation, increasing resilience to slow/medium SLR but not fast SLR.
- Wind waves promote accretion and higher forest elevation, partially offsetting SLR impacts and influencing inundation regimes.
Conclusions:
- Coastal conditions critically determine mangrove resilience to SLR, affecting accretion rates, forest position, and landward migration potential.
- Landward habitats can form even with limited sediment supply, potentially filling with eroded sediment over time.
- Mangrove sediment accretion under SLR is non-linear and highly dependent on specific coastal settings and proximity to the forest edge.
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