Short-term forecasting of M_max during hydraulic fracturing

Area of Science:

• Geophysics
• Earthquake Seismology
• Petroleum Engineering

Background:

• Studies show a correlation between injected fluid volume and maximum earthquake magnitude (Mmax).
• Existing seismic hazard paradigms offer divergent predictions for Mmax.
• Two Canadian project areas with hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity serve as distinct cases for seismic response.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the predictive accuracy and robustness of existing and novel methods for estimating Mmax.
• To introduce and validate a new forecasting method for induced seismicity.

Main Methods:

• Utilized injection and seismicity data from two distinct project areas in northeastern British Columbia.
• Tested three established Mmax estimation methods against one novel approach.
• Developed a novel method that incrementally adjusts Mmax forecasts based on fluid-induced stress release from each seismic event.

Main Results:

• The novel method generally yielded the lowest upper bound for Mmax among the tested approaches.
• The new method demonstrated reduced sensitivity to site-specific calibration parameters like the seismogenic index (Σ).
• The two project areas represented end-member cases of seismogenic response due to differing Σ values.

Conclusions:

• The novel forecasting method shows promise for operational earthquake forecasting.
• Its robustness and reduced reliance on site-specific parameters make it suitable for real-time risk management of induced seismicity.