Risk Factors Associated with Malignant Transformation of Astrocytoma: Competing Risk Regression Analysis

Background  Malignant transformation (MT) of low-grade astrocytoma (LGA) triggers a poor prognosis in benign tumors. Currently, factors associated with MT of LGA have been inconclusive. The present study aims to explore the risk factors predicting LGA progressively differentiated to malignant astrocytoma. Methods  The study design was a retrospective cohort study of medical record reviews of patients with LGA. Using the Fire and Gray method, the competing risk regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with MT, using both univariate and multivariable analyses. Hence, the survival curves of the cumulative incidence of MT of each covariate were constructed following the final model. Results  Ninety patients with LGA were included in the analysis, and MT was observed in 14.4% of cases in the present study. For MT, 53.8% of patients with MT transformed to glioblastoma, while 46.2% differentiated to anaplastic astrocytoma. Factors associated with MT included supratentorial tumor (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 4.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-19.10), midline shift > 1 cm (SHR 8.25, 95% CI 2.18-31.21), and nontotal resection as follows: subtotal resection (SHR 5.35, 95% CI 1.07-26.82), partial resection (SHR 10.90, 95% CI 3.13-37.90), and biopsy (SHR 11.10, 95% CI 2.88-42.52). Conclusion  MT in patients with LGA significantly changed the natural history of the disease to an unfavorable prognosis. Analysis of patients' clinical characteristics from the present study identified supratentorial LGA, a midline shift more than 1 cm, and extent of resection as risk factors associated with MT. The more extent of resection would significantly help to decrease tumor burden and MT. In addition, future molecular research efforts are warranted to explain the pathogenesis of MT.