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JUE Insight: COVID-19 and household preference for urban density in China
Naqun Huang1, Jindong Pang2, Yanmin Yang1
1Institute of Urban Development, Nanjing Audit University, Pukou, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 211815, China.
Journal of Urban Economics
|July 25, 2022
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic initially lowered Chinese housing prices by 2%, but they recovered by September 2020. The pandemic also altered housing price gradients, favoring lower-density living due to health concerns.
Area of Science:
- Real Estate Economics
- Urban Economics
- Public Health
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic presented unprecedented challenges to global economies and social behaviors.
- Understanding its impact on housing markets is crucial for policymakers and urban planners.
- China's unique housing market dynamics provide a valuable case study.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the short-term and medium-term effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on housing prices in China.
- To analyze the impact of the pandemic on housing price gradients, both horizontally and vertically.
- To identify potential shifts in household preferences driven by health risks.
Main Methods:
- Utilized transaction-level housing data from 60 Chinese cities.
- Employed a difference-in-differences (DID) specification to control for seasonal effects, specifically China's Spring Festival.
- Analyzed changes in housing price levels and spatial price variations.
Main Results:
- A 2% decrease in housing prices was observed immediately following the COVID-19 outbreak.
- Housing prices showed a gradual recovery trend, reaching pre-outbreak levels by September 2020.
- Significant flattening of the horizontal housing price gradient and a reduced price premium for high-rise buildings were noted.
- Changes in the vertical gradient within residential buildings were also identified.
Conclusions:
- COVID-19 had a temporary negative impact on Chinese housing prices.
- The pandemic induced a shift in housing preferences, favoring lower-density areas due to perceived lower infection risk.
- These shifts influenced urban spatial structures and housing market segmentation.
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