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Does the Fisher effect hold in Rwanda?

Martin Ruzima1, Micheal Kofi Boachie2, Tatjana Põlajeva3

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The Fisher effect in Rwanda shows a partial link between nominal interest rates and expected inflation. This suggests monetary policy and household savings may be impacted, with no short-run Fisher effect observed.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Monetary Policy
  • Macroeconomics

Background:

  • The Fisher hypothesis posits a direct relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation.
  • Empirical validation of the Fisher effect is crucial for understanding monetary policy transmission mechanisms.
  • Previous studies on the Fisher effect in developing economies like Rwanda are limited.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically investigate the presence and direction of the Fisher effect in Rwanda.
  • To analyze the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation in Rwanda from May 2012 to February 2020.
  • To assess the implications of the findings for monetary policy effectiveness and household savings.

Main Methods:

  • Time series data from May 2012 to February 2020 for Rwanda.
  • Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for empirical analysis.
  • Examination of both short-run and long-run dynamics.

Main Results:

  • Evidence of a partial Fisher effect in the long run, indicating incomplete absorption of expected inflation into nominal interest rates.
  • No significant Fisher effect was found in the short run.
  • The partial long-run effect suggests potential declines in bank deposits and household savings rates.

Conclusions:

  • The findings suggest that changes in expected inflation do not fully influence nominal interest rates in Rwanda.
  • Monetary policy may face challenges in its effectiveness due to the observed partial Fisher effect.
  • The lack of a short-run Fisher effect necessitates careful consideration when using interest rates as a monetary policy tool.