Warming and redistribution of nitrogen inputs drive an increase in terrestrial nitrous oxide emission factor

Anthropogenic nitrogen inputs cause major negative environmental impacts, including emissions of the important greenhouse gas N₂O. Despite their importance, shifts in terrestrial N loss pathways driven by global change are highly uncertain. Here we present a coupled soil-atmosphere isotope model (IsoTONE) to quantify terrestrial N losses and N₂O emission factors from 1850-2020. We find that N inputs from atmospheric deposition caused 51% of anthropogenic N₂O emissions from soils in 2020. The mean effective global emission factor for N₂O was 4.3 ± 0.3% in 2020 (weighted by N inputs), much higher than the surface area-weighted mean (1.1 ± 0.1%). Climate change and spatial redistribution of fertilisation N inputs have driven an increase in global emission factor over the past century, which accounts for 18% of the anthropogenic soil flux in 2020. Predicted increases in fertilisation in emerging economies will accelerate N₂O-driven climate warming in coming decades, unless targeted mitigation measures are introduced.