Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 20, 2026

A Combined 3D Tissue Engineered In Vitro/In Silico Lung Tumor Model for Predicting Drug Effectiveness in Specific Mutational Backgrounds
Published on: April 6, 2016
Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modeling to Predict PET Image Quality of Three Generations EGFR TKI in
I H Bartelink1, E A van de Stadt2, A F Leeuwerik1
1Department of Clinical Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Boelelaan 1117, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Introduction:
Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutated NSCLC is best treated using an EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI). The presence and accessibility of EGFR overexpression and mutation in NSCLC can be determined using radiolabeled EGFR TKI PET/CT. However, recent research has shown a significant difference between image qualities (i.e., tumor-to-lung contrast) in three generation EGFR TKIs: 11C-erlotinib, 18F-afatinib and 11C-osimertinib. In this research we aim to develop a physiological pharmacokinetic (PBPK)-model to predict tumor-to-lung contrast and as a secondary outcome the uptake of healthy tissue of the three tracers.
Methods:
Relevant physicochemical and drug specific properties (e.g., pKa, lipophilicity, target binding) for each TKI were collected and applied in established base PBPK models. Key hallmarks of NSCLC include: immune tumor deprivation, unaltered tumor perfusion and an acidic tumor environment. Model accuracy was demonstrated by calculating the prediction error (PE) between predicted tissue-to-blood ratios (TBR) and measured PET-image-derived TBR. Sensitivity analysis was performed by excluding each key component and comparing the PE with the final mechanistical PBPK model predictions.
Results:
The developed PBPK models were able to predict tumor-to-lung contrast for all EGFR-TKIs within threefold of observed PET image ratios (PE tumor-to-lung ratio of -90%, +44% and -6.3% for erlotinib, afatinib and osimertinib, respectively). Furthermore, the models depicted agreeable whole-body distribution, showing high tissue distribution for osimertinib and afatinib and low tissue distribution at high blood concentrations for erlotinib (mean PE, of -10.5%, range -158%-+190%, for all tissues).
Conclusion:
The developed PBPK models adequately predicted the image quality of afatinib and osimertinib and erlotinib. Some deviations in predicted whole-body TBR lead to new hypotheses, such as increased affinity for mutated EGFR and active influx transport (erlotinib into excreting tissues) or active efflux (afatinib from brain), which is currently unaccounted for. In the future, PBPK models may be used to predict the image quality of new tracers.
Insights
Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models accurately predicted tumor-to-lung contrast for three generations of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) used in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) imaging. These models can guide the development of new PET imaging tracers for EGFR-mutated NSCLC.
Area of Science:
- Radiochemistry and Nuclear Medicine
- Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics
- Oncology and Cancer Research
Background:
- Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations is effectively treated with EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs).
- Radiolabeled EGFR TKIs and PET/CT imaging can assess EGFR overexpression and mutation status in NSCLC.
- Significant differences in image quality, specifically tumor-to-lung contrast, exist among first, second, and third-generation EGFR TKIs (e.g., 11C-erlotinib, 18F-afatinib, 11C-osimertinib).
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict tumor-to-lung contrast for three generations of EGFR TKIs.
- To predict the uptake of tracers in healthy tissues as a secondary outcome.
- To evaluate the potential of PBPK models in optimizing PET imaging tracer development for NSCLC.
Main Methods:
- Collected physicochemical and drug-specific properties (pKa, lipophilicity, target binding) for each TKI.
- Integrated these properties into established PBPK models, incorporating NSCLC hallmarks like immune deprivation, perfusion, and acidic tumor environment.
- Validated model accuracy by comparing predicted tissue-to-blood ratios (TBR) with measured PET-image-derived TBR and performed sensitivity analyses.
Main Results:
- The developed PBPK models successfully predicted tumor-to-lung contrast for all tested EGFR-TKIs within a threefold error margin (PE: -90% for erlotinib, +44% for afatinib, -6.3% for osimertinib).
- Models demonstrated agreeable whole-body distribution predictions, indicating high tissue distribution for osimertinib and afatinib, and low distribution for erlotinib at high blood concentrations (mean PE: -10.5%).
Conclusions:
- The PBPK models adequately predicted the image quality for afatinib and osimertinib, and erlotinib.
- Deviations in predicted whole-body TBR suggest potential new hypotheses regarding EGFR affinity and active transport mechanisms (influx/efflux) not currently included in the models.
- PBPK modeling holds promise for predicting the image quality of novel PET imaging tracers for EGFR-mutated NSCLC in the future.
More Related Videos
Related Concept Videos
Physiological Pharmacokinetic Models: Incorporating Hepatic Transporter-Mediated Clearance
A recent model describes pravastatin's hepatobiliary excretion, mediated...
Model Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Distributed Parameter Models
The distributed parameter models are specifically designed to account for variations and differences in some drug classes. This model is particularly useful for assessing regional concentrations of anticancer or...
Pharmacokinetic–Pharmacodynamic Relationship: Problems
Pharmacokinetic–Pharmacodynamic Relationship: Model Components
Pharmacodynamic Models: Overview
Impact of Pharmacokinetic–Pharmacodynamic Models: Regulatory Decisions

