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Published on: April 28, 2022
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A dynamic model of nonviolent resistance strategy.
Erica Chenoweth1, Andrew Hocking2, Zoe Marks1
1John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America.
Plos One
|July 27, 2022
Summary
Targeting regime pillars, not just mass mobilization, is key for nonviolent revolutions to succeed. This strategy, especially focusing on less loyal pillars, drives defections more effectively, even for smaller movements.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Political Science
- Computational Social Science
Background:
- Nonviolent revolutions vary in success despite participation levels.
- Understanding effective activism strategies is crucial for political change.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict outcomes of different activism strategies using an agent-based model.
- To identify the most effective strategy for nonviolent revolution success.
Main Methods:
- Development of an agent-based model to simulate activism.
- Comparison of three distinct activism strategies: rapid recruitment, sustained commitment, and pillar-focused campaigns.
- Incorporation of information on regime pillar loyalty for targeted persuasion.
Main Results:
- Pillar-focused campaigns outperform rapid recruitment and sustained commitment strategies.
- This strategy is effective even with smaller movement sizes.
- Targeting less loyal pillars significantly increases the likelihood of defections and success.
- Numerical advantage alone is less critical than strategic targeting.
Conclusions:
- Focusing on undermining a regime's pillars of support is a more effective strategy than mass mobilization alone.
- Information on pillar loyalty allows for optimized targeting, enhancing success probability.
- This approach is particularly advantageous for small to medium-sized movements seeking political change.
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