Predictors of clonal evolution and myeloid neoplasia following immunosuppressive therapy in severe aplastic anemia

Predictors, genetic characteristics, and long-term outcomes of patients with SAA who clonally evolved after immunosuppressive therapy (IST) were assessed. SAA patients were treated with IST from 1989-2020. Clonal evolution was categorized as "high-risk" (overt myeloid neoplasm [meeting WHO criteria for dysplasia, MPN or acute leukemia] or isolated chromosome-7 abnormality/complex karyotype without dysplasia or overt myeloid neoplasia) or "low-risk" (non-7 or non-complex chromosome abnormalities without morphological evidence of dysplasia or myeloid neoplasia). Univariate and multivariate analysis using Fine-Gray competing risk regression model determined predictors. Long-term outcomes included relapse, overall survival (OS) and hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT). Somatic mutations in myeloid cancer genes were assessed in evolvers and in 407 patients 6 months after IST. Of 663 SAA patients, 95 developed clonal evolution. Pre-treatment age >48 years and ANC > 0.87 × 10⁹/L were strong predictors of high-risk evolution. OS was 37% in high-risk clonal evolution by 5 years compared to 94% in low-risk. High-risk patients who underwent HSCT had improved OS. Eltrombopag did not increase high-risk evolution. Splicing factors and RUNX1 somatic variants were detected exclusively at high-risk evolution; DNMT3A, BCOR/L1 and ASXL1 were present in both. RUNX1, splicing factors and ASXL1 somatic mutations detected at 6 months after IST predicted high-risk evolution.