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Multi-Scale Influencing Factors and Prediction Analysis: Dongxing Port-City Relationship.

Bin Wu¹, Guanhai Gu¹, Wenzhu Zhang¹

¹School of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530011, China.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

|July 28, 2022

Summary

The Dongxing port-city relationship evolved through three stages: balanced, port-focused, and urban-focused. Future development hinges on industrial upgrades, foreign investment, and infrastructure improvements for coordinated growth.

Keywords:

Dongxing City dynamic simulation improved dynamic concentration index multi-scale factors port–city development port–city relationship

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Area of Science:

Urban and Regional Economics
Port Management
Spatial Planning

Background:

The dynamic interplay between port development and urban growth is crucial for regional economic vitality.
Understanding the historical evolution of the Dongxing port-city relationship provides insights into its future trajectory.
Multi-scale analysis is essential to capture the complex factors influencing port-city dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

To calculate the dynamic concentration index of the Dongxing port-city system.
To analyze the evolutionary stages and influencing factors of the Dongxing port-city relationship.
To predict the future development trend of the Dongxing port-city system.

Main Methods:

Dynamic concentration index calculation.
Multi-scale index system development (country, province, district, county, individual levels).
Impulse response function model for factor analysis.
Auto-regression differential moving average (ARDMA) model for prediction.

Main Results:

Identified three development stages: low-level balanced (2001-2008), port development (2009-2014), and urban development (2015-2019).
Determined the order of influence of factors: China > Vietnam > county > individual > city > province.
Predicted a future transition towards coordinated development for Dongxing port-city.

Conclusions:

Dongxing port-city development has progressed through distinct phases, with urban factors gaining prominence.
National and county-level influences are most significant, followed by individual, city, and provincial levels.
Achieving high-quality coordinated development requires strategic improvements in industry, population management, foreign capital, innovation, and transport infrastructure.