Gender and Age Patterns in NSGA Swim Competitions

We estimate two common nonlinear models (quadratic and semilog) and one new model (exponential) of the time-age relationship in 500-yard freestyle swim times in the U.S. National Senior Games (ages 50 and up) in six biennial NSGA competitions (2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2019) for 468 men and 587 women. We use OLS and quantile regression (25%, 50%, and 75%) separately for each gender. The semilog model predicts faster times than the quadratic or exponential models. Our hypothesis that women slow down faster than men after age 50 is supported by both models as well as by our unique within-gender comparisons. Our findings of a nonlinear performance decline agree with studies of elite swimmers (Olympic, FINA). Our first-time study of NSGA data provides new guidelines to inform senior competitors. Our findings will assist trainers and community organizations that support NSGA competitions to promote a healthy senior lifestyle.