Evidence of the need for modified well-stirred model in vitro to in vivo extrapolation

In vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE), an approach for hepatic clearance (CL_H) prediction used worldwide, remains controversial due to systematic underprediction. Among the various probable factors, the original assumption of the hepatic mathematical model (i.e., the well-stirred model, WSM) may become problematic, leading to the underestimation of drug CL_H. Having a similar prerequisite that the well-stirred conditions are homogenous with perfectly mixed reactants, but using a different driving concentration, the modified well-stirred model (MWSM) stands apart from the WSM. However, we believe that both models should coexist so that the entire well-stirred scenario can be completely illustrated. Consequently, we collected published data from the literature and employed a logistic regression method to differentiate the optimal timing of use between WSM and MWSM in drug CL_H prediction. Generally, variances adopted in the regression, including partition coefficient (logP), fraction unbound (fu), volumes of distribution at steady-state (Vss), and mean residence time (MRT), corresponded to our assumption when protein-facilitated uptake was considered. Furthermore, a new empirical approach was introduced to allow practical use of the MWSM. The results showed that this model could provide a more precise prediction compared to previous empirical approaches. Therefore, these preliminary results not only delineated a more detailed structure and mechanism of MWSM but also highlighted its necessity and potential.