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Area of Science:

  • Computer Science
  • Economics
  • Network Science

Background:

  • Blockchains and cryptocurrencies have grown significantly since Bitcoin's inception in 2009.
  • The emergence of new cryptocurrencies often results from forking existing blockchain projects.
  • Understanding the evolution of the cryptocurrency ecosystem is crucial for predicting future market dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the relationship between new cryptocurrency creation and overall market capitalization.
  • To develop a model that accurately describes the evolution of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
  • To forecast the future market share of dominant cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Main Methods:

  • Applied a sub-linear power-law (Heaps' law) to model the appearance of new cryptocurrencies.
  • Developed a predictive model for the cryptocurrency ecosystem's evolution.
  • Analyzed the historical forking data of Bitcoin to validate model predictions.

Main Results:

  • The creation of new cryptocurrencies follows Heaps' law in relation to total crypto-market capitalization.
  • Each existing cryptocurrency, on average, leads to the creation of approximately 1.58 new ones.
  • Bitcoin is projected to maintain around 50% of the total crypto-market share, stabilizing in the near future.

Conclusions:

  • The growth of the cryptocurrency market can be quantitatively described using established mathematical laws.
  • The proposed model effectively reproduces the observed evolution of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
  • Bitcoin's market dominance is expected to remain significant under current economic conditions.