Prediction Model for Severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia in Pediatric Patients by Admission Laboratory Indicators

The purpose of this study was to develop a model for predicting severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (SMPP) in pediatric patients with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) on admission by laboratory indicators.

Pediatric patients with MPP from January 2019 to December 2020 in our hospital were enrolled in this study. SMPP was diagnosed according to guideline for diagnosis and treatment of community-acquired pneumonia in children (2019 version). Prediction model was developed according to the admission laboratory indicators. Receiver operating characteristic curve and Goodness-of-fit test were analyzed for the predictive value.

A total of 233 MPP patients were included in the study, with 121 males and 112 females, aged 4.541 (1-14) years. Among them, 84 (36.1%, 95% CI 29.9-42.6%) pediatric patients were diagnosed as SMPP. Some admission laboratory indicators (immunoglobulins M (IgM), eosinophil proportion, eosinophil count, hemoglobin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), total protein, albumin and prealbumin) were found statistically different (p < 0.05) between non-SMPP group and SMPP group. Logistic regress analysis showed IgM, eosinophil proportion, eosinophil count, ESR and prealbumin were independent risk factors for SMPP. According to these five admission laboratory indicators, the prediction model for SMPP in pediatric patients was developed. The area under curve of the prediction model was 0.777, and the goodness-of-fit test showed that the predicted SMPP incidence by the model was consistent with the actual incidence (χ2 = 244.51, p = 0.203).

We developed a model for predicting SMPP in pediatric patients by admission laboratory indicators. This model has good discrimination and calibration, which provides a basis for the early identification SMPP on admission. However, this model should be validated by multicenter studies with large sample.