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How does decision-making change during challenging times?

Alessandro Cicerale1, Enrico Blanzieri2, Katiuscia Sacco1

  • 1BraIn Plasticity and Behavior Changes @Department of Psychology, and Neuroscience Institute of Turin-University of Turin, Turin, Italy.

Plos One
|July 29, 2022
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Global crises increase risk aversion in decision-making. Studies replicating Prospect Theory found people become more cautious in both potential gains and losses during uncertain times, like terror attacks or pandemics.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Prospect Theory explains how cognitive biases influence decisions, deviating from rational expected utility.
  • Individual decision-making may shift during significant global events.
  • Previous research indicates altered choice patterns during uncertain periods.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate changes in individual decision-making attitudes during globally challenging events.
  • To test whether Prospect Theory's principles hold under conditions of heightened uncertainty.
  • To examine risk aversion shifts in gain and loss domains.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted three partial replications of Kahneman and Tversky's (1979) Prospect Theory experiments.
  • Collected data from 134 subjects after a Paris terror attack (2015).
  • Collected data from 176 subjects during Italy's first Covid-19 lockdown (2020) and 140 subjects after reopening.

Main Results:

  • Confirmed patterns of choice consistent with decision-making in uncertain times.
  • Observed a significant and consistent increase in risk aversion across both gain and loss domains in all three replications.
  • The observed phenomenon is suggested to stem from stress-related effects on decision-making.

Conclusions:

  • Globally challenging events, such as terror attacks and pandemics, significantly increase risk aversion.
  • Stress-related psychological effects appear to be a primary driver of these decision-making shifts.
  • Findings underscore the impact of external stressors on cognitive biases and economic choices.