Supporting SMEs during COVID-19: The case for targeted equity injections

We analyze the potential role of equity injections in addressing solvency risks among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) after the COVID-19 crisis. Building on firm-level balance sheet projections for a sample of European economies, we simulate selected policy interventions and find that equity injections are quite effective at dampening the rise in insolvencies. Cost effectiveness requires careful targeting, however; under an illustrative scenario, leaving aside any costs arising from imperfect information and implementation, the cost of a program targeting only those SMEs worth saving is just a tenth of the cost of an untargeted approach directed to all insolvent firms. Overall, our paper provides a case for governments to rely more on targeted equity injections in responding to major shocks that trigger mass solvency risks.