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Volcanic hazard exacerbated by future global warming-driven increase in heavy rainfall.

Jamie I Farquharson1, Falk Amelung1

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Global warming will increase heavy rainfall, raising the risk of volcanic hazards like dome explosions and flank collapses at over 700 volcanoes worldwide. Climate change adaptation is crucial for mitigating these future volcanic risks.

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Area of Science:

  • Volcanology
  • Climate Science
  • Geology

Background:

  • Heavy rainfall is a known trigger for various volcanic hazards, both eruptive and non-eruptive.
  • The frequency of these hazards has risen during the Holocene due to rapid climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the future incidence of extreme heavy rainfall in subaerial volcanic regions.
  • To assess the potential increase in rainfall-induced volcanic hazards under continued global warming.

Main Methods:

  • Comparative analysis of nine general circulation models (GCMs).
  • Assessment of rainfall projections across multiple spatial scales, from individual volcanoes to global regions.

Main Results:

  • Extreme heavy rainfall is projected to increase in most subaerial volcanic regions throughout the 21st century.
  • This increase is consistent across various spatial scales, impacting countries, volcanic arcs, and individual volcanic systems.
  • Over 700 volcanoes globally face a heightened risk of primary and secondary rainfall-related activity if warming continues unchecked.

Conclusions:

  • Continued global warming will likely increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall-induced volcanic hazards.
  • Urgent policy decisions, informed by scientific observations of precipitation, are needed to mitigate risks at vulnerable volcanoes.
  • Effective risk management strategies must account for the projected changes in rainfall patterns over the next 80 years.