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Next-generation time of death estimation: combining surrogate model-based parameter optimization and numerical

Leah S Wilk1,2, Gerda J Edelman3, Maurice C G Aalders1,2

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Accurate postmortem interval (PMI) estimation is crucial for forensic investigations. This study introduces a novel computational method combining thermodynamic modeling and optimization to predict PMI, achieving unprecedented accuracy without needing pre-discovery environmental data.

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Science
  • Thermodynamics
  • Computational Modeling

Background:

  • Postmortem interval (PMI) estimation is vital in forensic investigations for timeline reconstruction.
  • Current PMI methods rely on subjective temperature correlations, often requiring correction factors.
  • Numerical thermodynamic algorithms offer objective PMI determination but need specific input parameters.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a non-subjective method for postmortem interval (PMI) estimation.
  • To overcome the limitation of unknown ambient and perimortem temperatures in thermodynamic PMI modeling.
  • To create a computationally efficient framework for on-scene PMI determination.

Main Methods:

  • Combined numerical thermodynamic modeling with surrogate model-based parameter optimization.
  • Developed a hybrid computational framework to predict unknown thermodynamic parameters from measured body temperatures.
  • Validated the method on deceased human bodies.

Main Results:

  • Successfully predicted unknown ambient and perimortem temperatures using the hybrid model.
  • Achieved the lowest reported PMI estimation errors to date (0.18 h ± 0.77 h).
  • Significantly reduced computation times compared to conventional optimization algorithms.

Conclusions:

  • The novel hybrid computational framework overcomes critical limitations in thermodynamic PMI estimation.
  • This method provides accurate, non-subjective PMI determination suitable for real-time crime scene application.
  • The approach fundamentally expands the applicability of advanced thermodynamic modeling in forensic science.