Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Science
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Prudent risk management necessitates evaluating extreme scenarios, yet potential worst-case climate futures remain poorly understood.
• Anthropogenic climate change may pose existential risks, including societal collapse and human extinction, a dangerously underexplored area.
• Understanding extreme climate consequences is vital for galvanizing action, enhancing resilience, and informing policy and emergency responses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore the potential for anthropogenic climate change to result in global catastrophe.
• To outline current knowledge on extreme climate change likelihood and reasons for concern.
• To propose a research agenda for assessing catastrophic climate risks.

Main Methods:

• Literature review and synthesis of current knowledge on extreme climate change.
• Identification and definition of key terms related to catastrophic climate outcomes.
• Formulation of a research agenda addressing mass extinction, human mortality, societal vulnerabilities, and integrated catastrophe assessment.

Main Results:

• Current understanding of climate change's potential for societal collapse or human extinction is insufficient.
• There are significant, though underexplored, reasons to suspect climate change could lead to global catastrophe.
• A research agenda is proposed to address critical knowledge gaps regarding extreme climate risks.

Conclusions:

• The scientific community must prioritize research into catastrophic climate change scenarios.
• Understanding worst-case climate futures is essential for effective risk management and policy development.
• A comprehensive research agenda is needed to assess the multifaceted risks of extreme climate change.