A novel nomogram based on the nutritional risk screening 2002 score to predict survival in hepatocellular carcinoma...

Objective: transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is one of the common treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Predicting prognosis for HCC patients who received TACE is challenging because of huge differences in outcome. At present, the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002) is widely used to screen nutritional risk in hospitalized patients, which has been confirmed to be related to prognosis. Here, the objective of this research is to construct a prognostic nomogram using the NRS-2002 score for HCC patients receiving TACE. Methods: we enrolled 359 HCC patients who received TACE at the Xingtai People's Hospital between January 2015 and December 2020. According to the preoperative NRS-2002 score, patients were divided into an NRS ≥ 3 group (n = 190; 52.9 %) and an NRS < 3 group (n = 167, 47.1 %). Meanwhile, variables associated with survival were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Beyond that, a nomogram incorporating independent variables was established. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves were used to assess the prediction performance of the nomogram. Results: the median survival of the NRS ≥ 3 group was significantly lower than that of the NRS < 3 group. As shown by multivariate analysis, in the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage an NRS-2002 score ≥ 3, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, and alpha-fetoprotein were significantly associated with survival in HCC patients after TACE. In addition, the C-index was 0.708 (95 % confidence interval: 0.672-0.743), and the calibration curves showed a good consistency between the observed and predicted survivals at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Conclusions: NRS-2002 ≥ 3 could identify high-risk patients with HCC who received TACE. The NRS-2002-based nomogram model had good prognostic prediction accuracy. Keywords.