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Sunk-Cost Bias and Knowing When to Terminate a Research Project
Elaine Perignat1, Fraser F Fleming2
1Department of Business, Immaculata University, 1145 W King Rd., Immaculata, PA 19345, USA.
Scientific optimism can lead chemists to overcommit to research projects, a phenomenon known as sunk-cost bias. This bias, particularly in medicinal, pharmaceutical, and organic chemistry, can increase research costs and timelines.
Area of Science:
- Chemistry
- Psychology
- Research Management
Background:
- Scientific research success often overshadows the non-linear nature of discovery.
- Research can exceed expected timelines and costs due to unforeseen challenges.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the influence of sunk-cost bias on medicinal, pharmaceutical, and organic chemists.
- To compare how industrial and academic researchers approach sunk-cost bias.
- To identify strategies for mitigating avoidable research costs.
Main Methods:
- Qualitative analysis of interviews with chemists.
- Illustrative quotes to provide data on sunk-cost bias.
- Comparative approach examining industrial versus academic practitioners.
Main Results:
- Scientific optimism, while crucial for perseverance, can exacerbate sunk-cost bias.
- Chemists may continue research lines with minimal success likelihood.
- Differences in approach to sunk-cost bias exist between industrial and academic settings.
Conclusions:
- Sunk-cost bias is a significant, yet often overlooked, factor in research costs.
- Mitigation strategies can benefit a broad range of chemistry practitioners.
- Awareness and proactive management of sunk-cost bias are essential for efficient research.
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