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The Resident-intruder Paradigm: A Standardized Test for Aggression, Violence and Social Stress

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Violent behavior and the COVID-19 lockdowns: a nationwide register-based study.

Vojtech Pisl¹, Jan Vevera¹, Jakub Holas²

¹Faculty of Medicine in Pilsen, Charles University, Pilsen, Czech Republic.

|August 4, 2022

Summary

Physical interpersonal violence, including violent crime, significantly decreased during COVID-19 lockdowns. This reduction was more pronounced in males, though alcohol abuse history weakened the effect.

Keywords:

COVID-19 aggression alcohol crime lockdown violence women

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Area of Science:

Criminology
Public Health
Sociology

Background:

The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated unprecedented public health interventions, including nationwide lockdowns.
Understanding the impact of these lockdowns on societal behaviors, such as interpersonal violence, is crucial for public health policy.
Previous research on disaster-related lockdowns and violence has yielded mixed results.

Purpose of the Study:

To test the hypothesis that physical interpersonal violence decreased during COVID-19 lockdown periods compared to control periods.
To investigate the influence of gender and alcohol consumption on violence rates during lockdowns.

Main Methods:

Analysis of nationwide hospitalizations for assault using quasipoisson regression.
Comparison of assault rates during two lockdown periods with baseline data (2017-2020), controlling for seasonality and other pandemic effects.
Validation using police records of violent criminality (2017-2021) via one-way ANOVA.

Main Results:

Hospitalizations for assault substantially decreased during lockdowns (IRR = 0.43, P < .001).
The decrease in assault rates was more pronounced in males (IRR = 0.77, P < .05) and less pronounced in individuals with a history of alcohol abuse (IRR = 1.83, P < .001).
Violent crime rates decreased by 19% during lockdowns compared to the prepandemic baseline (P < .001).

Conclusions:

Physical interpersonal violence significantly decreased during the COVID-19 lockdown periods.
The reduction in violence was significantly greater among males.
Increased alcohol use during lockdowns may be a risk factor, and overall violent crime rates declined.