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Updated: Sep 2, 2025

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Scenarios for modeling solar radiation modification.

D G MacMartin1, D Visioni1, B Kravitz2

  • 1Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|August 8, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Developing standardized scenarios for solar radiation modification (SRM), also known as solar geoengineering, is crucial for assessing climate impacts and risks. This study proposes a framework for designing and simulating stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) scenarios for better policy-relevant comparisons.

Keywords:
climate engineeringclimate interventionscenariossolar geoengineeringsolar radiation modification

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Climate Modeling
  • Solar Geoengineering Research

Background:

  • Informed decisions on solar radiation modification (SRM), such as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), require robust climate response and impact projections.
  • Current SRM modeling simulations often use single, unrealistic, or scientifically-driven scenarios, limiting policy-relevant risk comparisons.
  • Existing simulation approaches hinder the ability to compare risks between different SRM strategies and non-SRM futures.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To address the limitations of current SRM scenario design in climate modeling.
  • To outline general considerations for creating policy-relevant scenarios for SRM research.
  • To propose a specific set of scenarios for stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) simulations.

Main Methods:

  • Development of general considerations for designing SRM scenarios.
  • Description of a specific set of scenarios to encompass diverse policy choices and uncertainties.
  • Generation of corresponding stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) simulations for community use.

Main Results:

  • A framework for scenario design tailored to SRM policy considerations has been established.
  • A comprehensive set of SAI scenarios capturing a range of potential futures and uncertainties is presented.
  • Simulations based on these scenarios are made available for broader scientific community engagement.

Conclusions:

  • Standardized and policy-relevant scenarios are essential for advancing solar geoengineering research.
  • The proposed scenarios and simulations will facilitate more robust comparisons of SRM risks and impacts.
  • This work supports informed decision-making regarding the future deployment and governance of solar radiation modification.