Long-term monitoring particulate composition change in the Great Lakes using MODIS data

Particulate composition provides important information for understanding the changes in underwater light fields and primary productivity. In this study, a semianalytical algorithm, based on Rayleigh-corrected reflectance at 678 nm and 748 nm on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images was used to estimate the ratio of chlorophyll a to total suspended solids (Chla/TSS), which characterizes the particulate composition of the Great Lakes. The long-term spatial and temporal characteristics of Chla/TSS in the Great Lakes from 2000 to 2020 were obtained. The results demonstrated that Lake Superior had the highest average Chla/TSS values (5.79±0.76 µg/mg), while Lake Erie had the lowest average Chla/TSS values (2.93±0.76 µg/mg). The Mann-Kendall test showed that the Chla/TSS of the Great Lakes all showed an increasing trend, notably in Lake Michigan, with 88.23% pixels showing significant increasing trend. Climatic and hydrological factors dominated the intra-annual variation of Chla/TSS, with contribution rates ranging from 71.47% to 92.54%. Through the annual Chla/TSS change pattern analysis, it was found that the contribution of wind speed to the annual variation in Chla/TSS was slight. Changes in temperature played a major role in the interannual variability of Chla/TSS in Lake Superior and Ontario; runoff and settlement were the major contributors in Lake Huron and Michigan, while cropland dominated the Chla/TSS interannual variability in Lake Erie. Furthermore, the significantly low values of Chla/TSS in spring had the potential to predict the occurrence of blooms in western Lake Erie, and the spatial distribution of Chla/TSS could help predict the location of blooms in the next few days.