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Global malaria infection risk from climate change.
1Urban Institute, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan.
Environmental Research
|August 8, 2022
Summary
Climate change will increase malaria infections globally, particularly in Africa, in the near term. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to mitigate these risks and protect vulnerable populations from malaria.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Public health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Malaria remains a significant global public health challenge, disproportionately affecting Africa.
- Rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions are a major concern.
- The precise impact of climate change on malaria infection rates across all epidemic regions remains unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate changes in global malaria infection rates under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
- To quantify malaria infection case changes (MICCs) resulting from different climate change scenarios.
- To assess the near-term and long-term impacts of climate change on malaria transmission.
Main Methods:
- Utilized diverse Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to project future temperature changes.
- Estimated global malaria infection rates and malaria infection case changes (MICCs) for different SSPs and time periods.
- Analyzed projected impacts on vulnerable regions, with a focus on Africa.
Main Results:
- Near-term (2021-2040) projections indicate an increase in global malaria cases, with Africa most adversely affected.
- Specific increases in MICCs are projected for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
- Long-term (2081-2100) projections suggest significant decreases in malaria cases under all analyzed SSPs, indicating a complex relationship with climate change over time.
Conclusions:
- Climate change poses an increasing threat to malaria control efforts, especially in vulnerable regions in the near future.
- Aggravated risks of malaria transmission highlight the urgency of addressing climate change.
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is identified as a key strategy to mitigate malaria risks and aid in its elimination.
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