Two Chemical Engineers Look at the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Area of Science:

• Chemical Engineering
• Epidemiology
• Public Health

Background:

• Chemical engineering principles offer novel approaches to complex health challenges.
• Understanding the true mortality rate of COVID-19 has been a persistent challenge for researchers.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine the intrinsic mortality rate of COVID-19 using a chemical engineering perspective.
• To develop an age-dependent model for COVID-19 mortality.

Main Methods:

• Combined daily death data, epidemiological simulation fitting, and population-based immunological blood testing.
• Applied chemical engineering methodologies, drawing parallels to catalyst turnover frequency analysis.
• Analyzed data from Spain and New York during the first wave of the epidemic.

Main Results:

• The intrinsic mortality rate of COVID-19 was calculated as 1.45 ± 0.45% for OECD countries during the first wave.
• A tentative formula for age-dependent mortality rate was proposed: f_mort = (3.0 ± 0.7)×10^-5 exp(0.1a), where 'a' is age in years.

Conclusions:

• Chemical engineering approaches are effective in solving complex epidemiological problems.
• The intrinsic mortality rate provides a crucial metric for understanding COVID-19's impact.
• Age is a significant factor influencing COVID-19 mortality risk.