Cumulative effects of piscivorous colonial waterbirds on juvenile salmonids: A multi predator-prey species evaluation

We investigated the cumulative effects of predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds on the survival of multiple salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and determined what proportion of all sources of fish mortality (1 -survival) were due to birds in the Columbia River basin, USA. Anadromous juvenile salmonids (smolts) were exposed to predation by Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia), double-crested cormorants (Nannopterum auritum), California gulls (Larus californicus), and ring-billed gulls (L. delawarensis), birds known to consume both live and dead fish. Avian consumption and survival probabilities (proportion of available fish consumed or alive) were estimated for steelhead trout (O. mykiss), yearling Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha), sub-yearling Chinook salmon, and sockeye salmon (O. nerka) during out-migration from the lower Snake River to the Pacific Ocean during an 11-year study period (2008-2018). Results indicated that probabilities of avian consumption varied greatly across salmonid populations, bird species, colony location, river reach, and year. Cumulative consumption probabilities (consumption by birds from all colonies combined) were consistently the highest for steelhead, with annual estimates ranging from 0.22 (95% credible interval = 0.20-0.26) to 0.51 (0.43-0.60) of available smolts. The cumulative effects of avian consumption were significantly lower for yearling and sub-yearling Chinook salmon, with consumption probabilities ranging annually from 0.04 (0.02-0.07) to 0.10 (0.07-0.15) and from 0.06 (0.3-0.09) to 0.15 (0.10-0.23), respectively. Avian consumption probabilities for sockeye salmon smolts was generally higher than for Chinook salmon smolts, but lower than for steelhead smolts, ranging annually from 0.08 (0.03-0.22) to 0.25 (0.14-0.44). Although annual consumption probabilities for birds from certain colonies were more than 0.20 of available smolts, probabilities from other colonies were less than 0.01 of available smolts, indicating that not all colonies of birds posed a substantial risk to smolt mortality. Consumption probabilities were lowest for small colonies and for colonies located a considerable distance from the Snake and Columbia rivers. Total mortality attributed to avian consumption was relatively small for Chinook salmon (less than 10%) but was the single greatest source of mortality for steelhead (greater than 50%) in all years evaluated. Results suggest that the potential benefits to salmonid populations of managing birds to reduce smolt mortality would vary widely depending on the salmonid population, the species of bird, and the size and location of the breeding colony.