Investigating Historical Baseflow Characteristics and Variations in the Upper Yellow River Basin, China

The baseflow of the Yellow River is vital and important for water resource management and for understanding the hydrological cycle and ecohydrology setting in this arid and semi-arid basin. This study uses a Lyne and Hollick digital filtering technique to investigate the behaviors of the baseflow and the baseflow index in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin (China). The observed streamflow discharges along the river were used to analyze the baseflow trend, persistence, and periodic characteristics during the period of 1950-2000. The results show that the average baseflow and BFI in the upper reaches of the Yellow River exhibit a decreasing trend and will continue to decline in the future. Generally, the annual average baseflow and BFI for the most upstream areas of the Yellow River show little difference, while the baseflow and BFI exhibit significant differences for the downstream areas. The filtered annual baseflow varied between 128 × 10⁸ m³/year and 193 × 10⁸ m³/year for the Yellow River. The BFI ranged from 0.54 to 0.65, with an average of 0.60. This indicates that on average, 60% of the long-term streamflow is likely controlled by groundwater discharge and shallow subsurface flow. Statistics show that two periodic variations were observed in the baseflow evolution process. The results indicate that on average, the first and second main cycles of baseflow behaviors occur at 28 years and 12-17 years, respectively. Correspondingly, the estimation indicates that the abrupt change points tend to appear in the 1960s, the 1980s, and the 1990s. An improved understanding of baseflow behaviors can help guide future strategies to manage the river regime, its water resources, and water quality.