The 'welcomed lockdown' hypothesis? Mental wellbeing and mobility restrictions

Area of Science:

• Mental Health Research
• Epidemiology
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic introduced unprecedented mobility restrictions globally.
• The impact of these lockdowns on mental wellbeing, specifically anxiety and depression, remains a key area of investigation.
• The 'welcomed lockdown' hypothesis suggests that under certain risk conditions, lockdowns may not negatively affect mental health.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate whether COVID-19 risk exposure modifies the mental wellbeing impact of lockdowns.
• To examine the 'welcomed lockdown' hypothesis by assessing mental health outcomes under varying pandemic mortality and lockdown stringency.
• To analyze the effects of pandemic mortality and lockdown stringency on individual symptoms of anxiety and depression.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a Difference-in-Difference (DiD) and Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) approach.
• Employed an event study methodology to analyze data across European countries.
• Exploited differential timing of pandemic exposure and varying lockdown stringency.

Main Results:

• Lockdowns were associated with an average increase in depression (3.95%) and anxiety (10%) symptoms.
• These negative mental health effects were nullified in countries experiencing high COVID-19 mortality ('pandemic category 5').
• The combination of high pandemic mortality and lockdown stringency did not lead to increased anxiety or depression.

Conclusions:

• The 'welcomed lockdown' hypothesis is supported in high-mortality environments, where lockdowns do not reduce mental wellbeing.
• High pandemic mortality appears to mitigate the negative mental health consequences of mobility restrictions.
• Policy implications suggest that context-specific risk assessment is crucial when implementing public health interventions like lockdowns.