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Updated: Sep 1, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Refining epidemiological forecasts with simple scoring rules
Robert E Moore1, Conor Rosato1, Simon Maskell1
1Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Hill, Liverpool L69 3GJ, UK.
Abstract:
Estimates from infectious disease models have constituted a significant part of the scientific evidence used to inform the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. These estimates can vary strikingly in their bias and variability. Epidemiological forecasts should be consistent with the observations that eventually materialize. We use simple scoring rules to refine the forecasts of a novel statistical model for multisource COVID-19 surveillance data by tuning its smoothness hyperparameter. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
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