Computational markers of experience- but not description-based decision-making are associated with future depressive...

Early prediction of high depressive symptoms is crucial for selective intervention and the minimization of functional impairment. Recent cross-sectional studies indicated decision-making deficits in depression, which may be an important contributor to the disorder. Our goal was to test whether description- and experience-based decision making, two major neuroeconomic paradigms of decision-making under uncertainty, predict future depressive symptoms in young adults.

One hundred young adults performed two decision-making tasks, one description-based, in which subjects chose between two gambling options given explicitly stated rewards and their probabilities, and the other experience-based, in which subjects were shown rewards but had to learn the probability of those rewards (or cue-outcome contingencies) via trial-and-error experience. We evaluated subjects' depressive symptoms with BDI-II at baseline (T1) and half a year later (T2).

Comparing subjects with low versus high levels of depressive symptoms at T2 showed that the latter performed worse on the experience- but not description-based task at T1. Computational modeling of the decision-making process suggested that subjects with high levels of depressive symptoms had a more concave utility function, indicating enhanced risk aversion. Furthermore, a more concave utility function at T1 increased the odds of high depressive symptoms at T2, even after controlling depressive symptoms at T1, perceived stress at T2, and several covariates (OR = 0.251, 95% CI [0.085, 0.741]).

This is the first study to demonstrate a prospective link between experience-based decision-making and depressive symptoms. Our results suggest that enhanced risk aversion in experience-based decision-making may be an important contributor to the development of depressive symptoms.