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Area of Science:

  • Oceanography
  • Marine Ecology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Marine heatwaves (MHWs) and ocean acidity extreme (OAX) events are individual climate extremes impacting marine ecosystems.
  • Compound events, where MHWs and OAX co-occur, can have amplified ecological consequences.
  • Understanding the frequency and drivers of these compound events is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the occurrence of compound MHW-OAX events using observational data.
  • To investigate the geographical patterns and underlying mechanisms of MHW-OAX events.
  • To project the future likelihood of MHW-OAX events under climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of monthly open-ocean observations from 1982-2019 to determine present-day MHW-OAX event frequency.
  • Statistical analysis to compare observed co-occurrence with independent event expectations.
  • Utilizing daily model output from an Earth system model ensemble to assess future changes in MHW-OAX event likelihood under global warming.

Main Results:

  • Globally, 1.8% of months are compound MHW-OAX event months, nearly double the expected frequency if independent.
  • Compound events are most prevalent in subtropics (2.7% of months) and least common in equatorial and high latitudes.
  • Projected 2°C global warming increases MHW-OAX days from 12 to 265 per year, with increased variability also contributing significantly.

Conclusions:

  • Compound MHW-OAX events are a significant and underappreciated phenomenon in the present climate.
  • Warming and acidification trends under climate change will drastically increase the frequency of these events.
  • The projected rise in compound MHW-OAX events poses severe risks to marine ecosystem health and function.