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Related Experiment Videos

Simultaneous/multiple cause-delay (SIMCAD): an epidemiological approach to projecting mortality.

S J Olshansky

    Journal of Gerontology
    |July 1, 1987
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study introduces a new mortality projection method based on aging and mortality change theory. It accounts for lifestyle improvements and disease treatment, showing promise for chronic diseases in older populations.

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    Area of Science:

    • Epidemiology
    • Demography
    • Biostatistics

    Background:

    • Current mortality projection methods rely on disease elimination or rate extrapolation.
    • Recent mortality declines are linked to lifestyle changes and advances in treating degenerative diseases.
    • The risk of death from degenerative diseases is shifting to older age groups.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To present an alternative mortality projection method.
    • To align projections with recent epidemiological and demographic transitions.
    • To offer a model consistent with aging and mortality change theory.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed an alternative projection model based on epidemiological aging theory.
    • Incorporated the redistribution of mortality risk from younger to older ages.
    • Tested the model using U.S. mortality and population data.

    Main Results:

    • The alternative method demonstrated promise in projecting mortality rates.
    • The model is particularly effective for chronic degenerative diseases.
    • Results showed consistency with observed mortality transitions in the U.S.

    Conclusions:

    • The proposed epidemiological model offers a viable alternative for mortality projections.
    • This method is especially valuable for forecasting mortality in middle-aged and older populations.
    • The findings support the theory of mortality risk redistribution with aging.

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