Risk Factors and Prediction Models for Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Based on Random Forest

To establish a risk prediction model of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and provide management strategies for preventing this disease.

A total of 200 inpatients and physical examinees were collected from the Department of Gastroenterology and Endocrinology and Physical Examination Center. The data of physical examination, laboratory examination, and abdominal ultrasound examination were collected. All subjects were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a verification set (30%). A random forest (RF) prediction model is constructed to predict the occurrence risk of NAFLD. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is used to verify the prediction effect of the prediction models.

The number of NAFLD patients was 44 out of 200 enrolled patients, and the cumulative incidence rate was 22%. The prediction models showed that BMI, TG, HDL-C, LDL-C, ALT, SUA, and MTTP mutations were independent influencing factors of NAFLD, all of which has statistical significance (P < 0.05). The area under curve (AUC) of logistic regression and the RF model was 0.940 (95% CI: 0.870~0.987) and 0.945 (95% CI: 0.899~0.994), respectively.

This study established a prediction model of NAFLD occurrence risk based on the RF, which has a good prediction value.