Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Surrogate Modeling of Pediatric Tissue Expansion

Growth of skin in response to stretch is the basis for tissue expansion (TE), a procedure to gain new skin area for reconstruction of large defects. Unfortunately, complications and suboptimal outcomes persist because TE is planned and executed based on physician's experience and trial and error instead of predictive quantitative tools. Recently, we calibrated computational models of TE to a porcine animal model of tissue expansion, showing that skin growth is proportional to stretch with a characteristic time constant. Here, we use our calibrated model to predict skin growth in cases of pediatric reconstruction. Available from the clinical setting are the expander shapes and inflation protocols. We create low fidelity semi-analytical models and finite element models for each of the clinical cases. To account for uncertainty in the response expected from translating the models from the animal experiments to the pediatric population, we create multifidelity Gaussian process surrogates to propagate uncertainty in the mechanical properties and the biological response. Predictions with uncertainty for the clinical setting are essential to bridge our knowledge from the large animal experiments to guide and improve the treatment of pediatric patients. Future calibration of the model with patient-specific data-such as estimation of mechanical properties and area growth in the operating room-will change the standard for planning and execution of TE protocols.